Live snapshot
updates as you typeMoney lasts
Nest egg
Money lasts to
Per child
What could be left at age · estate incl. home, today's dollars
How retirement spending is covered
What this means ▾
A scenario doesn't need 100%. Even professionals aim for ~80–90%, because real retirements adjust over time. A lower number isn't failure — it's a to-do list. Hover or tap any underlined result above to see what it means, how it is figured, and why it matters; the Suggestions further down rank the changes that help most. An educational illustration, not a prediction or advice.
Test the scenario
🌦️▸
Markets & taxes
The weather the money lives through — returns, swings, inflation, tax.
"How do market ups-and-downs and taxes affect whether my money lasts?"
💡 In plain terms: This sets the weather the money lives through — the assumed average return, how wildly it swings year to year, how fast prices rise, and the bite taxes take from withdrawals. The swings matter as much as the average: a run of bad years right after retirement begins is far more dangerous than the same years later.
Not sure of the tax rate? A simple guide: pick ~20–25% if most of the savings are in a 401(k)/traditional IRA (taxed when withdrawn), ~10–15% for a mix, or ~0–5% if mostly Roth or already-taxed accounts. When unsure, 18% is a reasonable middle.
🍽️▸
Spending strategy
Spending less — or flexing in bad years — is often the strongest fix.
💡 In plain terms: This is what the plan costs each year once retirement begins — the single biggest factor in whether the money lasts. Real retirees do not blindly spend the same amount into a crash — they ease off. Flexible spending is usually the single biggest realistic boost to success.
Stress tests
🌩️▸
Crisis timing verified history ✓
A crash early in retirement can be the difference between fine and broke.
Pick a real historical crash and slide when it lands in retirement. A crash early — while withdrawals are happening — is the most dangerous, because assets are sold at low prices to fund spending (sequence-of-returns risk). Baseline years use the scenario's average return; the crash years use that era's real market & inflation history.
No crashstrikes later in retirement →
— without the crash— with the crash▒ crash years
Stocks (S&P 500), bonds (10-yr US Treasury) and inflation (CPI) are the verified 1928–2023 record. Confirmed on the Self-check tab. Not advice.
🏥▸
Care costs
The big what-if — years of long-term care can drain a plan.
💡 In plain terms: Long-term care — an aide, assisted living, or a nursing home — is the big what-if that can drain a plan. The inputs set what a year of care would cost, when it might start, how long it lasts, and the odds of needing it.
Explore
📈▸
Balance over a lifetime
Savings build up, then get drawn down — see the whole arc across futures.
💡 In plain terms: Each imagined future is one path the money could take. The shaded band is the spread from unlucky to lucky; the line in the middle is the typical outcome. The band fanning out over time is the honest truth that the future is uncertain — the goal is to see whether even the unlucky paths hold up.
Range of outcomes (unlucky → lucky)Typical (middle) portfolioTypical estate incl. home equityRetire
| Age | Unlucky (10th) | Median | Lucky (90th) |
|---|
👵👴▸
Couples & survivors advanced
The money must last for whoever lives longer — usually the harder test.
💡 In plain terms: Planning as a couple means the money must last until the second person passes — usually the harder test. While both are alive there are two Social Security checks and lower married tax rates; when one passes, the smaller check stops, taxes rise to single rates, and spending drops a bit. That widow's penalty is a real risk worth seeing.
The survivor transition (lost check, single brackets, lower spending) needs lifespan uncertainty on. This overrides the simple Married toggle.
🏠▸
Home & mortgage advanced
Home equity counts toward what's left behind — not spent unless you downsize.
💡 In plain terms: Your house affects the plan two ways: the mortgage is a bill that eventually ends (freeing up money), and the home itself is wealth that can only be tapped by downsizing. The tool finds when the loan is paid off and counts the home equity in what is left behind — but it will not spend the house on living costs unless a future sale is set.
Downsize / sell home later
At that age the home is sold, any remaining mortgage paid off, a cheaper home bought, and the freed cash (after selling costs) is added to the investments.
🏦▸
Detailed taxes & accounts pro
Where the money sits — 401(k) vs Roth vs regular — changes the taxes and forces RMDs.
💡 In plain terms: Where the money sits changes the taxes. A 401(k)/IRA is taxed at withdrawal and forces minimum withdrawals after 73; a Roth comes out tax-free; a regular account is in between. Turning this on makes the tool withdraw in the smart order and use real tax brackets.
The remainder is treated as a regular taxable account. Combined pre-tax + Roth shares are capped at 100%. Tax figures use 2025 federal brackets — verify them on the Self-check tab.
🔬▸
Make it more realistic optional
Occasional severe crashes, fees, getting safer with age, lifespan uncertainty.
💡 In plain terms: These options model real-world realism: occasional severe crashes, fees that quietly compound, getting safer with age, and the fact that no one knows exactly how long they will live.
Each is explained in plain language on the Method tab.
Suggestions — the biggest levers
💡 In plain terms: These are the specific changes that would move the success number the most, ranked by impact. A lower score is not failure — it is a to-do list. Usually a mix of spending a little less, working a bit longer, or turning on flexible spending closes the gap.
Share & export
Share this scenario as a file that opens in any browser — anyone can build their own free copy from it. Scenarios are saved only in this browser, so keep a copy in a folder.
Export the outcomes — every scenario's results (success, nest egg, year-by-year balances) as a CSV.
Backup everything — scenarios live only in this browser, so a cleared cache erases them. Keep a backup file somewhere safe; Restore brings it all back on any device.
Or auto-fill from a spreadsheet — download a blank template, fill it in Excel/Numbers, save as CSV, then import.
Your data & privacy
We don't store the scenarios. Your figures stay in your browser on this device (in local storage) — never sent to or saved by us. This is a learning sandbox, not a vault: use round, hypothetical numbers, not personal specifics, and you'll get the exact same insight. To keep a scenario, use Export/Print to download a copy; to wipe it, clear your browser or click below.
Scenario Lab · educational illustration tool · not investment, tax, or legal advice
Figures are hypothetical and generated from the numbers you enter.
Figures are hypothetical and generated from the numbers you enter.